An asteroid that measures up to 300 feet across could smack into Earth in 2032, and while NASA says the chances of a collision are “extremely low,” the probability has been increasing since the space rock was discovered weeks ago.
NASA said last week that there is currently a 2.3% (or 1 in 43) chance that the asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, will hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. While still tiny, that probability nearly doubled from the agency’s initial estimate of 1.2% in late January.
At that time, NASA said that “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”
The agency is monitoring the asteroid’s orbit and said that the object’s “impact hazard” could be ruled out eventually. But in a blog post about the space rock, the agency said it is “also possible its impact probability will continue to rise” as more details become clear.
How Big is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet across. If it were to impact Earth, it would hit at a staggering speed of 38,000 mph, causing significant local damage.
Could This Asteroid Destroy the Planet?
The good news? Not quite. While an asteroid of this size could cause widespread destruction in the impact zone, it would not be a planet-wide catastrophe. For context, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was several miles wide, whereas 2024 YR4 is only a few hundred feet across.
What’s NASA Doing to Track It?
NASA has been closely monitoring 2024 YR4 since it was first spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 27, 2024. Observatories worldwide have been gathering data to refine its orbit and determine if the impact risk increases or decreases.
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will take a closer look at the asteroid in March 2025, which could provide more precise details about its size, speed, and composition.
When Will We Know For Sure?
The asteroid will remain visible to telescopes until April 2025, after which it will move out of view until June 2028. By then, NASA hopes to have a definitive answer on whether 2024 YR4 poses a real threat.
What Happens if It’s on a Collision Course?
In the unlikely event that calculations confirm an impact, NASA and other space agencies could use planetary defense measures, including:
- Kinetic Impactors – Sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and change its trajectory.
- Gravity Tractors – Using a spacecraft’s gravity to gently nudge the asteroid off its path.
- Nuclear Deflection – As a last resort, detonation of a nuclear device near the asteroid could alter its course.
Should You Be Worried?
NASA has emphasized that while the impact probability is increasing of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032, it is still extremely low. Most asteroids in similar situations are eventually ruled out as threats after further observations.
For now, the best thing to do is stay informed. NASA will continue tracking 2024 YR4, and updates will be shared as soon as new data is available. If history has taught us anything, science and technology will be our best defense against cosmic threats.
What do you think about the asteroid threat? Drop your thoughts in the comments below!For more space news, follow NASA’s Official Website.